About time....

It seems that adversity does make strange bedfellows... what should have been done in 2014.

How CNN helps the terrorists: exciting threats and hysteria feeds the fear

Terror operations work on the principle of targetted violence backed up by propaganda; that small violent act gets lucky sooner or later against a small number of targets; which then gets amplified by the spread of fear in the form of propaganda.  That leads to an over-reaction by the larger, numerically-superior force that spends inordinate resources and effort to placate the population. That drives the larger force to play the terrorists' game without defeating them.

It's like fuel, oxygen, and heat cause fire. The oxydation chain reaction needs a perpetual  presence of all three elements to succeed. Cut one off and the fire dies.

With terrorism, you need violent acts, the spread of propaganda, and then an over-reaction in a chain reaction over and over again.

But how can you do that when the terror attacks are 10 months apart? People lose interest and go back to their lives. They forget to be terrorized. They stop feeding into hysteria. If you let it recede and people move on and the terror objective fails. So how does it succeed? Simple: CNN helps the terrorists.



How does CNN fit in?  Unwittingly, or perhaps ignoring that reality for personal gain, CNN and other media continue to pass on unfiltered, unrealistic, and unhelpful information over and over from the terror group into the mainstream communication stream into the minds of the larger force. They take unrealistic information at face-value without doing the homework to measure it's actual value.  They feed sensationalism because it gets eyeballs for viewership and TV ratings. Not for public good. For advertising dollars. That's the most cynical reason to perpetuate terror propaganda. I wouldn't go so far as to say they are two sides of a conspiracy but they feed one into another in a way that is not helpful to defeat the objective of terrorism.

When CNN doesn't measure one terrorist amongst 2 million Syrian refugees as a largely successful operation that's tainting reality. When CNN passes on threats against Washington without any measure, do they realize the terrorists would find it easier to attack Boston or New York now that the government is fixating on the political action rather than considering threats rationally?

When CNN pumps propaganda, it harms the real process. Governments are forced to waste effort countering threats that may not be realistic but are bolstered by inaccurate and uncritically vetted journalism that regurgitate the fear and mass produce it unto hysteria. The more they spew sensational fear, the worse it gets for the people planning to guard against terror. Can we blame politicians for knee-jerk political posturing based on civilian fear?

But does the media consider this factor of liability as much as they do lawsuits from companies for slander? For product defect reports? Should they be this cavalier with human lives by obfuscating security forces from the real purpose?

Did daesh down Russian plane?

No technical reason Russian plane went down, no pilot warning, no emergency maneuvers...

Sounds suspiciously like revenge...

Update: the reason why daesh didn't claim responsibility is that they were hoping Russia would continue to attack the wrong groups in Syria and help daesh's objectives.

#Obama admits failure in Iraq and Afghanistan

#Obama's success metric when judging Putin propping up Syria's al-Assad:

"One of those players, Kroft points out, is Russia, which recently stepped up airstrikes and naval bombardments in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. President Putin "is challenging your leadership, Mr. President," Kroft says.

#Obama disagrees. "Steve, I've got to tell you, if you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in in order to prop up your only ally, is leadership, then we've got a different definition of leadership," he says."

So by his own metrics: Afghanistan and Iraq are failed expeditions. For those that didn't catch his subtle flaw; let me elaborate.

He's propping up this president in Afghanistan. And before him it was Karzai.

And #Obama is propping up this president in Iraq.  And before him it was al-Maliki.

So by Obama's own standards, these are failures too. It was only when Steve Kroft pushed Obama that this truth came out.

Give the Kurds a homeland

If you want a natural counterbalance to the rise of Islamic extremism, then give Kurds what they want in northern Syria and Iraq.  Kurds want a homeland and they are willing to fight to keep extremist out.
There's the Wests' ground forces to exploit air power.

The Other Reason Putin is Attacking ISIS / Rebels

It's been reported by Western reporters the obvious reasons why Putin is on the march in Syria. Oil, European sanction lifting, his economy...

This one shows Putin took my advice and is trying to put a wedge between Europe and USA for his own benefit.  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/putins-moves-in-syria-may-be-linked-to-sanction-hopes.html

But the less reported reasons are perfectly plain if you look at Russian newspapers. In English.

They understand the power dynamic of Assad versus the other factions. But what they don't seem to see is that Arabs won't accept Assad.


First, Russians are just as horrified as the West about ISIS and it's brutality.
 The Russian people have not had 10 years of agony and war in the Middle East so their younger generation doesn't know what the USA is recovering from. Young people don't have memory. Russians don't like Islam and don't want to sit by while they gain strength.

What some people don't realize is that Putin is very much like Bush II, they both believe in the Wolfowitz Doctrine. 


Of course in Russia and Syria, they believe ISIS is a USA invention. 


But more importantly, Russia is afraid of attacks at home. 

According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

- See more at: http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/#sthash.GpPjRAmn.dpuf

 "They will use any type of attacks, but this war has only just begun, and, like in any war, the enemy will fight back. There is definitely a serious threat to the Russian military. There will be attacks against Russia and then there will be more of them to follow," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

"They will use any type of attacks, but this war has only just begun, and, like in any war, the enemy will fight back. There is definitely a serious threat to the Russian military. There will be attacks against Russia and then there will be more of them to follow," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

- See more at: http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/#sthash.GpPjRAmn.dpuf

 According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

- See more at: http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/#sthash.GpPjRAmn.dpuf

http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/

Putin's bumble presents an opportunity.

Putin went on record defending military intervention in Syria, and recommended that other nations consider assisting the Syrian regime in countering terrorism ISIS. He recommended coordinating with Assad to fight terror.

To defend propping up his ally is understandable, but recommending other nations, presumably European nations and America, to get involved directly was a strategic blunder.  While it is true it would be easier  assisting Assad, the West wants Assad out.  They would rather see him fall even if that means longer war against ISIS.

Putin's offer could be used to backfire on Assad. Perhaps he believes the west won't intervene directly. But what's to stop American and European forces to set up a base inside free Syrian army held territory near Aleppo?

What's to stop Western forces taking an airbase inside Syria and propping up pro western forces directly? One  could claim Putin just invited us.

The manager dilemma

One of the fundamental problems that arises from managers decisions is this paradox:

If I say I can solve a problem only if a manager gives me $1 million (for example) to build the solution and the manager refuses then who is right?

By default the problem can't be solved without that solution. So the manager is right. By default. Without making a solution one can't dispute this outcome.

But that doesn't mean the solution won't work. The solution might be workable. It might solve a problem no one or thing else can. It might change the world. It might revolutionize society.

But without support no one will know.

If no resources are spent there is no way to prove or disprove the proposition. Not all solutions will work. But they all can't fail either. There is inherent risk in all solutions but to hide behind no action is not management. It is abrogation of responsibility to hide from being wrong.

While no one funds the effort, the manager remains right and can remain right forever. There is no way to dispute the truth yet society can't move forward if all managers get to say no.  They get to keep their jobs their benefits and avoid hard decisions and tests to their status.

There must be a way to enforce progress despite the comfort of ignorance.

Where Obama has sold out: Iraq

There are many issues that Obama has staked a position that is pro-citizen and anti-cronyism.

http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/fffd6e71-3772-416e-a397-ce503b151c12.img

Iraq and Syria is not one of them.

The reason why the West is not winning in Iraq is in part due to the fact that Obama has sold out to special interests on strategy in Iraq against ISIS. He is allowing side objectives to get in the way.

What he told the American people about the objective in defeating ISIL :

"This resolution reflects our core objective to destroy ISIL."
http://www.ibtimes.com/full-text-obama-isis-war-speech-islamic-state-terrorists-are-going-lose-president-1813394

What he is not telling the American people is that his real objective is:

This resolution reflects our core objective to destroy ISIL AND maintain favorable interests in Iraq."

That means propping up the corrupt Iraqi leaders that caused this whole mess in the first place. They turned Anbar over to ISIS by not being inclusive to Sunni Arabs. Iraq has disintegrated as a result!

Obama can win or he can maintain the cronys in Iraq that are pro-USA. He can't do both.

If winning is the ultimate objective then all secondary objectives must disappear. If the only way to do that means arming and cooperating with Iranians to crush ISIS then that should be the strategy. If that means arming the Kurds to crush ISIS then that should be the strategy. If it means US ground troops in Syria then that should be the strategy. If it means nuking Raqqa then that should be the strategy.  There is no middle ground in war. There is no appeasing side interests on the way to victory.

The American people deserve to know the truth that Obama doesn't want Iraq on his CV and he is leaving the decisions to the vested interests that caused the mess in the first place. That is making defeat more likely, not less.

If I was Obama, I would tell Abadi he's got 30 days to start showing some victory or Abadi is out of the picture and the coalition will fight over top of what's left of Baghdad.

Saudi Arabia has a real problem.

The USA army are no longer the foot soldiers for the Saudi kingdom.

That presents a serious problem:  the Saudi army is soft and untested. They aren't ready for contact. They haven't suppressed Yemen and Yemeni militias consist of squabbling groups.

ISIS is not.

The Saudi army is on the defensive.

ISIS is not.

The Saudi army has torn allegiances amongst Sunni and Shia sympathies.

ISIS is not.

If the kingdom wants to survive, it should hire American veterans of Iraq to fight ahead of their own army. The people of Saudi are sympathetic to ISIS just as they were sympathetic to al Qaeda. They already live in a dictatorship, so they are just as likely to prefer a religious one.

Any Saudi defeat would trumpet the death knell of the kingdom.  Those ISIS vipers they have lain with are ready to move into Riyadh. Saudi Arabia cannot allow any more victory to ISIS.

I am sure some noble  American veterans would like nothing more than to treat ISIS to their own harsh treatment.

Effective Proposal Writing: Now Available on iTunes

Using the techniques I talk about in this book, Effective Proposal Writing which is now available on iTunes and iBookstore, I have gone on elance and written 4 proposals and gotten one client to accept my bid.  I have one underway that might be successful as well. 

That's perhaps a 50% success rate.  On 4 attempts, and my billable rate is far higher than the average.  So what that means is I work smarter not cheaper.

I'm happy I made it to Apple iTunes through Lulu.com. It's been a while but hey I can't complain.

Knowledge is hard won

Phone a friend for recruitment and unleashing your inner psychopath: how to join ISIS.

It's a shocking strategy that ISIS is using to draw in foolish people to their midst.  This video reveals that ISIS is not at successful at the social media that we are told is working like videos. But they are more successful with personal endorsements from people trying to convince their friends.

This is a CNN video so Blogger won't let me embed it.


http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/03/23/intv-amanpour-aimen-dean-former-jihadist-mi5.cnn?iid=ob_article_footer_expansion&iref=obnetwork


http://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.2323137.1428836935!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_225/image.jpg 

Maliki wanted to be a sectarian leader, Obama wisely let him fail.

Maliki used his paranoia to widen the sectarian mistrust and fuel the ISIS invasion. He made it impossible to have an inclusive government so the outcome is predictable.

If Obama had acted then, the situation would be worse.  To help Maliki would have tarred USA with the same brush, to engender hatred against oppressors within Sunni community.

Instead, Obama wisely let him fail and the unintended consequence was the ISIS advance happened faster than expected. But ISIS would have invaded later on it was inevitable. 

By not propping Maliki up, Obama used the leverage of the situation to get a better deal from the Iraqi government. Now the Iraqi government, desperate to win, will need to accede to US demands that they would have ignored months ago.

Here's how Leaders lead from behind:

A leader that reacts to historical situations, the current crisis of the day, and the previous economic situation will always be playing catch up.

That is leading from behind.

In order to get ahead, they have to be out front extrapolating what the situation will be, the new opportunities that will appear, and planning to include those possibilities into the future posture.

That is getting ready for what comes next.

Being prepared for the future eliminates problems that will disappear if you make the best of the future situation.

Effective Proposal Writing: Making Words Impact Reviewers

I have some experience on larger robotics projects, so I think I can comment on the project process.  Above in the mosaic is some of them, not all I've worked on.  To date, I've written awarded proposals worth in excess of $4 million.

One plane ride I had the idea to write a simple quick book on how to write proposals for science and engineering.  So I took out a note pad and wrote a simple 17 pages.

I wrote a book on proposal writing like it was a proposal itself. 

Some day, I will write the premium version with details, but I will share my basic knowledge in summary for a steal.  For the $3 or so I'm asking, you will spend more on FEDEX for your tender bid.  If it helps you win even $50,000 then you won't regret the experience.  Or the price.
 
You can find this book on many sites:

Here's a sample:

What is the US strategy in Arabia: Let them devour each other...

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/frontline-fight-for-yemen/on-the-ground-in-yemen-six-questions-with-safa-al-ahmad/

There are at least five factions within Yemen fighting for control: Houthis, AQAP, former president's rebels, current president's army,  Southerners, Northerners, and the Populist movement. 

With so many fragmented groups, how can any group take and hold ground? When alliances can be set at noon and the next lunch time they are sniping each other? One side attacks and there is vengeance the next day.

After supporting the ex president, the US cannot take a leadership role given the factions united to attack and remove the Yemeni president. That and drone strikes antagonized AQAP areas.

The US has swung to isolationist in the schizophrenic empire spectrum for Arabia.

So what is the most practical action to take? For the US, stay on the sidelines and let them devour each other is my prediction.

One cannot peace keep until they are exhausted. Groups that are not exhausted will continue until they are eradicated, or victorious.
 
The Houthis claim that it is the US and the Israel's policy to destroy Islam. The irony is they are perpetuating the US policy on their own....

Obama is playing one side of Iran against the other.

Obama is playing one part of the Iranian community against each other. 

This is the smart part of bringing the Iranians to the table.  Unlike other Gulf nations, Iran has a smart educated middle class that is sympathetic to the ideals of the US when the moral police aren't looking.

To give the middle class prosperity is to make them amenable to  the ideals of capitalism. Just like Vietnam.

Blunt the Antagonists

Why did the US expose the plan to attack Mosul?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/31/middleeast/iraq-isis-tikrit/index.html

They claim it's a warning to civilians that might want to flee in advance of the assault. But that's months away and if there isn't enough reason to leave Mosul today, it won't matter. It makes no sense.

So why then the warning?


Simple, the short goal is to win the war, the longer goal is to blunt all the aggressors.  If Iran is fighting on the side of Iraqi government forces, then the US does not want that to be an easy fight they want to attrit the Iranian forces as well because that makes them less of a threat in the future against Saudi and Jordanian forces.  Victory will come but the US planners are considering the outcome of current actions.

They warned ISIS to make them move forces forward to defend the advance which will make them easier to kill by exposing them on more fronts and then  forcing Iraqi forces to waste their strength against harder defenses in depth. 

The victory will come, but they can achieve a secondary goal of blunting ALL the antagonists. Sounds like karma to me for all those American casualties....

How can the US be fighting alongside Saudi and Iranian interests at the same time?

Comedians that make good jokes don't have to be good analysts. Sometimes in pursuit of a joke that is funny, they brush over the wider understanding of the situation.


Jon Stewart don't understand why the US is fighting alongside Saudi Arabia in Yemen and alongside Iran in Iraq. 

Easy,  because both fronts are part of the status quo and both ruling  governments of Saudi Arabia and Iran and are anti-ISIS / anti-AlQaeda. Neither Iran nor Saudi want a caliphate it is a direct threat to their existence.

The US is anti-extremist not imperial in the Middle East.

Since the US doesn't want to take over any territory, they want the status quo which means to keep those governments in power.   That means work with anyone against radical Islam.

Angela Merkel's logic is faulty on Russia vs. Ukraine.

http://www.dw.de/merkel-says-weapons-wont-help-resolve-eastern-ukraine-crisis/a-18242179

Chancellor Merkel told the annual Munich Security Conference on Saturday that Germany remained convinced that sending weapons to the Ukraine forces fighting against pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine would not contribute to a resolution of the crisis there.

"The problem is that I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily," she said. "I have to put it that bluntly."

Wrong.

December 1994: Ukraine has nuclear weapons. Russia doesn't invade.

February 2014: Ukraine has no nuclear weapons.  Russia invades Crimea by proxy.

Waging war is not an existential matter with guns, tanks, and trucks for Russia. It is with nuclear weapons. Ukraine gave up its best deterrent to Russian aggression and we let them down by not following through to help them.

Give Ukraine nuclear weapons and the war will end the next day.

Toronto's "Mystery Tunnel" is a Spider Hole

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/5/59/Spider_hole.png/250px-Spider_hole.png


This mystery tunnel is anything but mysterious. It's an ambush position known in military terms as a spider hole.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/mystery-tunnel-found-near-pan-am-games-venue-1.2968367

Any kind of meth lab or grow op would need an exhaust port for the chemicals or generator so you could breath or keep the generator running. Exhaust would draw attention.

It's not a tunnel because it doesn't go anywhere.

This article disproves that the tunnel was the work of engineering students.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/toronto-bunker-builder-lucky-it-didn-t-collapse-expert-says-1.2254522
Even first year engineering students can do a force body diagram and figure out they need lateral support.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider_hole

It looks like it can hold a 10 people. Plus supplies for the wait until ambush.

Here's how one might use it. Build a spider hole in a secure area long before surveillance. Wait till the event to load it with weapons and ammo. Attackers go into the spider hole 3 days or so before event security tightens up, then they wait until the right moment to burst out and attack.

You dig it in the winter when no one is around, then it gets hidden by vegetation in the spring.

If you want to hide from detection, you make sure it does not collapse under the ground weight and thawing conditions. You build it with a structure to make sure the space won't collapse on you.  You truck away the dirt, hide the entrance in some trees, and camoflage the ingress path.

If you find the people that made this spider hole, be very cautious they are probably well-armed and expecting that knock on the door. 

Give the caliphate what it wants, only not the way they want it.

This article is a very good read on ISIS:

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

It explains, more or less, that the caliphate is living out an ancient Twilight novel - with the over-simplistic plot line and pathetic credibility gaps like a teen novel trilogy (made for people whose brains are forming yet still defective) that only morons would find interesting - this fantasy  involves a battle with an invading army at the town of Dabiq. The army is supposed to be Romans, everyone riding horses, and it is a milestone on the way to the apocalypse according to the script they are following.

Dabiq is on the border of Turkey and Syria. (from the article)

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2015/02/isismapweb2/307796482.jpg

Following the beliefs of an ancient book makes them predictable.   Why not let them have their wish? More like death wish.
 
If we want to get rid of them, and prove that god was never on their side, then we should formally agree to meet them on the plains around Dabiq.  Then when they gather, JDAM them.
 
If the events surrounding the caliphate don't play out like the plot of the book, then even zealous supporters will need to review their beliefs.  Doubt will creep in and the whole hollowed out core of once-humans will collapse. 

According to the pulp fiction, there will only be 12 caliphs and al-Bagdhadi is number 8.  Kill 5 more leaders and the plot line is over. 

To attack them alone will not solve the problem. To defeat what they believe is to attack the schwerpunkt of their ideology.  If the story does not go as planned, the whole enterprise was a lie.

Their moral belief in the script of an ancient book being true is their source of strength and biggest weakness. Exploit them.

The final awakening...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/isis-militants-to-be-wiped-out-says-jordan-minister-1.2949151

Arabs will make themselves free from US involvement when they finally stop radical Islam from drawing them into conflict. 

The US is no longer fixated on oil, it can make almost enough for domestic supply so there is no real economic urge to keep meddling.  Other than Israel. 

The real problem in the Middle East is not the US, it's allowing radical Islamist groups to grow and fester in your midst, sooner or later they were bound to turn on the rest of the Arab world.  You should have heeded Pakistan's problems.  An uneasy detente is breathing space of wicked groups that will turn their guns on you sooner or later.

To take responsibility and get rid of these groups will end the turmoil.