Angela Merkel's logic is faulty on Russia vs. Ukraine.

http://www.dw.de/merkel-says-weapons-wont-help-resolve-eastern-ukraine-crisis/a-18242179

Chancellor Merkel told the annual Munich Security Conference on Saturday that Germany remained convinced that sending weapons to the Ukraine forces fighting against pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine would not contribute to a resolution of the crisis there.

"The problem is that I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily," she said. "I have to put it that bluntly."

Wrong.

December 1994: Ukraine has nuclear weapons. Russia doesn't invade.

February 2014: Ukraine has no nuclear weapons.  Russia invades Crimea by proxy.

Waging war is not an existential matter with guns, tanks, and trucks for Russia. It is with nuclear weapons. Ukraine gave up its best deterrent to Russian aggression and we let them down by not following through to help them.

Give Ukraine nuclear weapons and the war will end the next day.

Post-war Ukraine will look like post-war Yugoslavia

Since neither NATO nor Russia want a fight to the death over Ukraine, this crisis won't go nuclear and therefore the only other option is an uneasy peace.

I predict that the #Ukraine will look like post-war Yugoslavia with a divided ethnic separation.  The peace deal won't go far enough until they agree to weapons cantonment sites, disarmament of militias, and an UNPROFOR-style peace observation force. 

One side will drift into the Russia sphere and the other into the Western sphere of influence. 

If I was an ethnic Russian war criminal, I wouldn't feel safe in post-war Russian-side Ukraine. Look what happened to Ratko Mladić, the commander of the army.