Did daesh down Russian plane?

No technical reason Russian plane went down, no pilot warning, no emergency maneuvers...

Sounds suspiciously like revenge...

Update: the reason why daesh didn't claim responsibility is that they were hoping Russia would continue to attack the wrong groups in Syria and help daesh's objectives.

Phone a friend for recruitment and unleashing your inner psychopath: how to join ISIS.

It's a shocking strategy that ISIS is using to draw in foolish people to their midst.  This video reveals that ISIS is not at successful at the social media that we are told is working like videos. But they are more successful with personal endorsements from people trying to convince their friends.

This is a CNN video so Blogger won't let me embed it.


http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/03/23/intv-amanpour-aimen-dean-former-jihadist-mi5.cnn?iid=ob_article_footer_expansion&iref=obnetwork


http://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.2323137.1428836935!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_225/image.jpg 

Blunt the Antagonists

Why did the US expose the plan to attack Mosul?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/31/middleeast/iraq-isis-tikrit/index.html

They claim it's a warning to civilians that might want to flee in advance of the assault. But that's months away and if there isn't enough reason to leave Mosul today, it won't matter. It makes no sense.

So why then the warning?


Simple, the short goal is to win the war, the longer goal is to blunt all the aggressors.  If Iran is fighting on the side of Iraqi government forces, then the US does not want that to be an easy fight they want to attrit the Iranian forces as well because that makes them less of a threat in the future against Saudi and Jordanian forces.  Victory will come but the US planners are considering the outcome of current actions.

They warned ISIS to make them move forces forward to defend the advance which will make them easier to kill by exposing them on more fronts and then  forcing Iraqi forces to waste their strength against harder defenses in depth. 

The victory will come, but they can achieve a secondary goal of blunting ALL the antagonists. Sounds like karma to me for all those American casualties....

How can the US be fighting alongside Saudi and Iranian interests at the same time?

Comedians that make good jokes don't have to be good analysts. Sometimes in pursuit of a joke that is funny, they brush over the wider understanding of the situation.


Jon Stewart don't understand why the US is fighting alongside Saudi Arabia in Yemen and alongside Iran in Iraq. 

Easy,  because both fronts are part of the status quo and both ruling  governments of Saudi Arabia and Iran and are anti-ISIS / anti-AlQaeda. Neither Iran nor Saudi want a caliphate it is a direct threat to their existence.

The US is anti-extremist not imperial in the Middle East.

Since the US doesn't want to take over any territory, they want the status quo which means to keep those governments in power.   That means work with anyone against radical Islam.

Give the caliphate what it wants, only not the way they want it.

This article is a very good read on ISIS:

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

It explains, more or less, that the caliphate is living out an ancient Twilight novel - with the over-simplistic plot line and pathetic credibility gaps like a teen novel trilogy (made for people whose brains are forming yet still defective) that only morons would find interesting - this fantasy  involves a battle with an invading army at the town of Dabiq. The army is supposed to be Romans, everyone riding horses, and it is a milestone on the way to the apocalypse according to the script they are following.

Dabiq is on the border of Turkey and Syria. (from the article)

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2015/02/isismapweb2/307796482.jpg

Following the beliefs of an ancient book makes them predictable.   Why not let them have their wish? More like death wish.
 
If we want to get rid of them, and prove that god was never on their side, then we should formally agree to meet them on the plains around Dabiq.  Then when they gather, JDAM them.
 
If the events surrounding the caliphate don't play out like the plot of the book, then even zealous supporters will need to review their beliefs.  Doubt will creep in and the whole hollowed out core of once-humans will collapse. 

According to the pulp fiction, there will only be 12 caliphs and al-Bagdhadi is number 8.  Kill 5 more leaders and the plot line is over. 

To attack them alone will not solve the problem. To defeat what they believe is to attack the schwerpunkt of their ideology.  If the story does not go as planned, the whole enterprise was a lie.

Their moral belief in the script of an ancient book being true is their source of strength and biggest weakness. Exploit them.

Turkey, the nation, is lead by morons

Turkey is a confusing ally.  On the one hand, they don't like the Assad regime next door.  They also don't like the Kurdish parties inside Turkey and Northern Iraq and Syria.

On the other hand, they refuse to help fight Islamic State (Caliphate). They refuse to let US fly from Turkish airports.  They refuse to let Kurds move in to reinforce their brothers fighting the Caliphate. They consider the Kurds and Islamic state equal enemies.

They have forgotten a simple maxim: the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Why wouldn't they allow Kurds to go fight in Syria? The more that empty out into Syria the less are left in Turkey.  The weaker Islamic State is then the better for Turkey.

No one says they have to let Kurdish fighters back later on.  They could solve two problems at once. 

The fact that they can't see where their true interest lies, leads me to think they aren't lead very well.