Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Post-war Ukraine will look like post-war Yugoslavia

Since neither NATO nor Russia want a fight to the death over Ukraine, this crisis won't go nuclear and therefore the only other option is an uneasy peace.

I predict that the #Ukraine will look like post-war Yugoslavia with a divided ethnic separation.  The peace deal won't go far enough until they agree to weapons cantonment sites, disarmament of militias, and an UNPROFOR-style peace observation force. 

One side will drift into the Russia sphere and the other into the Western sphere of influence. 

If I was an ethnic Russian war criminal, I wouldn't feel safe in post-war Russian-side Ukraine. Look what happened to Ratko Mladić, the commander of the army.

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