Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Syrian Civil War Tactical Analysis

I've analysed the Syrian  tactics on both sides, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) working for Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and I have some recommendations for the FSA:
The biggest problem for the FSA is not taking and holding ground; it's neutralizing SAA's tank advantage. Frankly, FSA would do better in the long run arming tank hunter teams to go into a static tank defensive position, kill the tanks and retreat. FSA has time on their side. FSA shouldn't waste inexperienced fighters trying difficult missions that even NATO soldiers would have a hard time with. The regime will fall, they always do.

Eventually, the FSA infantry will outnumber the SAA, therefore the FSA needs to eliminate the tactical advantage of air and tanks. Grind down their armor first.  That's how they could win.

The Germans in WWII made very effective 3-man tank hunting teams. Go watch  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDbFdngVOJk

SAA Tank commanders are either incompetent or forced to make their tanks vulnerable by remaining static in defensive positions.  That is stupid tank warfare. No Soviet Tank school would teach them that. If they were taught to dig in tanks then it would have been on open ridges in defensive positions. Tanks must stay on the move or they are sitting targets, watch how Americans use tanks.  Inside cities are the WORST places to leave tanks. Limited visibility from building rows, and with no dismounted infantry to protect them locally, tanks are weak. The fact that they are using BMP to protect tanks with no dismounted infantry in urban combat gives FSA the advantage.

The FSA should arm tank hunters with Molotov cocktails to hunt tanks. Gasoline and bottles are cheap and easy weapons to slip through checkpoints.  Go to the higher stories in buildings and firebomb the tanks.  Molotovs will not kill tanks unless one can hit the exhaust vents. But firebombs blind tanks and then infantry can put grenades down the barrels to either damage the barrel or if the breech is open kill the tank. Then RETREAT. That's safer than trying to aim at the tank when the tank is aiming back.

The FSA doesn't need to win every battle now, they need to get the tactical advantage.

The biggest problem for FSA fighters is inexperienced targetry using line of sight weapons (LOS) like M40 105mm recoilless rifles, CORNET, METIS, and RPG. They are dying too quickly in some cases before they get good at aiming. Anti tank weapons work best if one can ambush the convoys and tanks when one is prepared first because that makes up for inexperience and the arcs of fire are set. It's the best way to compensate for all disadvantages.

IED's are working better than LOS weapons because one doesn't risk a firefight and inexperienced and under-resourced rebels can make the charge big enough to kill tanks.

Eventually, the rebels will win, they always do because they will outnumber the army no matter how much they are armed. Time is always on the side of the insurgent. Armies are made to fight foreign enemies but they don't work well against the people they were sworn to protect.

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