The OPEC Game: Forced non obsolescence

Supply and demand are not the only economics forces at work.  The other market mover is disruptive technology and obsolescence. When a new technology comes along to make another technology moot, then it quickly exploits that weakness and takes over when it's allowed to do so.  For example, where can you get typewriter ribbons anymore?  And where did floppy disks go? Everyone has many USB disk drives. I can't find a computer that uses floppy drives.

In W. Brian Arthur's book The Nature of Technology he explains that the economy is never quite at stasis, it is always changing on the time frame of decades not months like glacial movement but still in motion.  And the genesis of new technologies is born out of the arrangements set up today.

Now, back to OPEC.  OPEC has a valuable commodity they can sell so long as competing technologies cannot make enough money to remain solvent - in business long enough - to obsolete oil for good.

So OPEC plays two long games at the same time.  It tries to maximize the value when it can from every barrel of oil. It plays the production game to raise or lower oil value month over month. It keeps member countries happy and fills national coffers.

But every so often it plays the obsolescence game as well.  It increases production in the face of falling demand. Or it holds production steady in spite of falling prices to make oil so cheap it's the only game in town.  With most of the world reliant on oil products, that makes it harder for people to adopt alternative energy means because it is cost-prohibitive to switch.  That captures another group of people to their customer base.

Vladimir Putin: what not to do

Russia desperate for gas pipeline to Europe

Ok so Vladimir Putin annexed part of Ukraine. And in exchange suffered sanctions, isolation, the Saudis dumping oil to bankrupt both fracking US shale drillers and expensive corrupt oil production like Russia. And a drop in oil prices to levels that might bankrupt Russia.  Does this sound like a good deal for Russians?

So you can't have it both ways, Vladimir.  You can't upset them and expect them to sit quiet. You learned nothing from George Bush II's foray into unilateral action. UK doesn't count they've been US lapdogs since the 1970's. He acted without seeing the long game and ruined his reputation, ruined his countries standing, plunged the economy and so on. I thought Russians were smarter than Americans? They don't have to beat you they control your state through your economy. You are a fuel export country. You depend on reliable treaties. You depend on prompt payment. You've given them an excuse to punish your country. Better for them. Worse for your people.

When you piss off your customers, you're going to pay to keep them.  And this depression might last longer than your hold on the Crimea. So acting alone against the West will continue to cost your people. If you were smart, you'd turn 180 degrees and be the best friend Europe ever had. Wedge between them and the Americans.  

The Fed's Recovery Plan: Lie and hope for the best

People like Max Keiser have railed for years about the atrophied and dishonest nature of the US stock market/ US banks / US regulators relationships and the weak economic outlook.

Here is the reality; the economy was damaged by the US banks' greed.   The US government bailed out companies that deserved to fail (how would the economy look if home owners held mortgages that were worth 50% to the bankruptcy creditors - that seems like a logical  and fair outcome - the debtors win and the bankers lose).  The US regulators are OK with fining US banks and to keep the crimes under prosecuted.  The last fact, the US government shot it's bolt of free money bailing out the companies they hoped would keep jobs. Of course to do that the corporate sociopaths demanded their own livelihood was part of the bargain.

So my postulate is this: the US commercial system will continue to downplay the corruption, continue to lie to the people about what went on, and to hope that the continued wish becomes reality as people make the improvements to the economy themselves.  No bankers will go to jail, no money will be refunded to lost pension funds. The US Fed plans to keep lying about the number of US dollars in circulation and basically "will the recovery" like a necromancer might raise a body from the dead. 

Travel Process Efficiency?

Why institute a travel approval process that saves $10 on a hotel room but through the delay in approving same the cost of the airfare goes up $100?

How can that be claimed to be efficient?

The reality is that when the estimate is made, the airline cost is ignored. Only the accountants enter the data, so that removes the honest assessment of what went on.  No one puts the two numbers together.

Oil Transport Reality

Oil Transport by Rail : Estimated loss 42 people and  $200 million. 

Oil Transport by Pipeline : Estimated loss $44 million.

Pipeline Strategy and Politics

It's sheer madness to continue to push for pipelines across any territory.  Here are the facts:

Any pipeline requires onerous regulatory review, which often ignores the facts, and review at many levels.  All it takes is one jurisdiction to object to the placement en route to block the project for almost indefinite periods.  Certainly longer than any company can afford to wait.  As the resource loses value, the business justification evaporates as well. Anytime the people get upset, the politicians fear for their jobs and delay the business.  Any politically motivated mayor, reeve, or alderman can manipulate the democratic process for personal gain. Obama, the Democrats, Boehner, the Republicans, Harper, Prentice, and Trudeau and Mulcair are all benefiting from energizing people to get active in the political process, supporting them, which has little to do with the approval of any pipeline.  Pipelines are approved by bureaucrats.

The environmental lobby is powered by emotions, not facts. The environmental agenda manipulates people to ignore the relative safety and risks of options.  It's far easier to manipulate sentiment.  How does one gallon of oil sands refined oil emit more than a gallon of Saudi Arabian oil?  It does because Neil Young says so. The environmental lobby is the same as the politicians - they want people to support them on an issue people agree with.  We still need energy at the end of the day, what alternative do they offer?

No one remembers the Three Mile Island accident, they remember that nuclear power is dangerous because Greenpeace told everyone it is.  Why do we need to burn oil as the majority fuel source in North America?  Because people blocked the construction of nuclear power plants because Greenpeace told them so.  So, now what? We would have been better off with a nuclear power plants so we didn't need as much crude.

Every jurisdiction demands their cut, their bribe, from the proceeds of the pipeline business.  One could argue that insurance towards reimbursement for loss from pipeline spills justifies this demand.  But the reality is if a spill happens people will sue the company and expect them to pay it off any case.  All those payments are a tax on oil that doesn't belong to them.  A tax that benefits environmentalists as much as other citizens.

What Alberta should do is build a refinery and save the jobs for the local Albertans. Then the problem of shipping the refined oil becomes everyone else's problem. That's the way the public wants it, and then no other jurisdiction can benefit from it.

What is stream of conscious creation?

I use a very simple creation method to get ideas out: continue creating until your thought process stalls. I start by some simple meditation.  Normally just breathing. Not Om meditation. I do not aim my mind at a goal. I let it wander which is against meditation where you are focussing on the centre to consider your inner self. Not bad for a white guy?

Start with one idea and let it evolve and come out into some form as your main goal. Attaining that level of control on one thought is key.

Never delete your thinking nor criticize it while your brain is trying to get the ideas out. Most people lose creating by starting to edit before they have fully formed ideas. Don't self edit. Don't criticize.
Last edit comes later once you've distracted yourself and forgotten your thought process.

It really helps thinking like a Buddhist. You realize that the ideas don't exist anymore than you do so you don't feel ownership. Just stewardship. It's ok if they don't make sense. That takes time.

Accept your ideas as a starting point. Not a final goal. Once you attain idea maturity then put it on paper and THEN edit it. Simple is better. Concise and packed with meaning is better. Most insightful thoughts are deep but centred. Not bland and obvious. There is a design saying, a design is complete when you remove all that need not be there.

Most blog posts are stream of consciousness. That's why a word or two is wrong and some time later I've gone back to do a final pass. But look at the output. Apart from a few words or clarifications they are all stand-alone ideas done to fruition. Takes me less than 5 minutes. I can write off one before I board a plane. I do them waiting in line. My brain is constantly meandering. I have learned a unique valuable skill to realize I can form it and then release it.

Now my other secret is I've written four books. 300+ pages each in Strunk & White so about 600 pages each in normal writing. That is how I learned short sharp writing.

If you want to learn how start by meditating and ask for some advice. I'm here as long as my brain is.