About time....

It seems that adversity does make strange bedfellows... what should have been done in 2014.

The Other Reason Putin is Attacking ISIS / Rebels

It's been reported by Western reporters the obvious reasons why Putin is on the march in Syria. Oil, European sanction lifting, his economy...

This one shows Putin took my advice and is trying to put a wedge between Europe and USA for his own benefit.  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/putins-moves-in-syria-may-be-linked-to-sanction-hopes.html

But the less reported reasons are perfectly plain if you look at Russian newspapers. In English.

They understand the power dynamic of Assad versus the other factions. But what they don't seem to see is that Arabs won't accept Assad.


First, Russians are just as horrified as the West about ISIS and it's brutality.
 The Russian people have not had 10 years of agony and war in the Middle East so their younger generation doesn't know what the USA is recovering from. Young people don't have memory. Russians don't like Islam and don't want to sit by while they gain strength.

What some people don't realize is that Putin is very much like Bush II, they both believe in the Wolfowitz Doctrine. 


Of course in Russia and Syria, they believe ISIS is a USA invention. 


But more importantly, Russia is afraid of attacks at home. 

According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

- See more at: http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/#sthash.GpPjRAmn.dpuf

 "They will use any type of attacks, but this war has only just begun, and, like in any war, the enemy will fight back. There is definitely a serious threat to the Russian military. There will be attacks against Russia and then there will be more of them to follow," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

"They will use any type of attacks, but this war has only just begun, and, like in any war, the enemy will fight back. There is definitely a serious threat to the Russian military. There will be attacks against Russia and then there will be more of them to follow," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

- See more at: http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/#sthash.GpPjRAmn.dpuf

 According to Sotnikiv, terrorists may arrange terrorist attacks inside Russia as well.

"They could be terrorist attacks on train stations, or in any place, where they can find some kind of breach in security. They have a lot to choose from. Unfortunately, this is inevitable, because there are underground extremist groups in Russia too, and they will declare war on the Russian Federation under the pretext of helping brothers in Islam," the expert said.

"Terror attacks may occur in the near future - not only in the Caucasus, but also in Central Russia - anywhere in Russia," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

- See more at: http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/#sthash.GpPjRAmn.dpuf

http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/02-10-2015/132226-russia_isis-0/

Maliki wanted to be a sectarian leader, Obama wisely let him fail.

Maliki used his paranoia to widen the sectarian mistrust and fuel the ISIS invasion. He made it impossible to have an inclusive government so the outcome is predictable.

If Obama had acted then, the situation would be worse.  To help Maliki would have tarred USA with the same brush, to engender hatred against oppressors within Sunni community.

Instead, Obama wisely let him fail and the unintended consequence was the ISIS advance happened faster than expected. But ISIS would have invaded later on it was inevitable. 

By not propping Maliki up, Obama used the leverage of the situation to get a better deal from the Iraqi government. Now the Iraqi government, desperate to win, will need to accede to US demands that they would have ignored months ago.

What is the US strategy in Arabia: Let them devour each other...

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/frontline-fight-for-yemen/on-the-ground-in-yemen-six-questions-with-safa-al-ahmad/

There are at least five factions within Yemen fighting for control: Houthis, AQAP, former president's rebels, current president's army,  Southerners, Northerners, and the Populist movement. 

With so many fragmented groups, how can any group take and hold ground? When alliances can be set at noon and the next lunch time they are sniping each other? One side attacks and there is vengeance the next day.

After supporting the ex president, the US cannot take a leadership role given the factions united to attack and remove the Yemeni president. That and drone strikes antagonized AQAP areas.

The US has swung to isolationist in the schizophrenic empire spectrum for Arabia.

So what is the most practical action to take? For the US, stay on the sidelines and let them devour each other is my prediction.

One cannot peace keep until they are exhausted. Groups that are not exhausted will continue until they are eradicated, or victorious.
 
The Houthis claim that it is the US and the Israel's policy to destroy Islam. The irony is they are perpetuating the US policy on their own....

Blunt the Antagonists

Why did the US expose the plan to attack Mosul?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/31/middleeast/iraq-isis-tikrit/index.html

They claim it's a warning to civilians that might want to flee in advance of the assault. But that's months away and if there isn't enough reason to leave Mosul today, it won't matter. It makes no sense.

So why then the warning?


Simple, the short goal is to win the war, the longer goal is to blunt all the aggressors.  If Iran is fighting on the side of Iraqi government forces, then the US does not want that to be an easy fight they want to attrit the Iranian forces as well because that makes them less of a threat in the future against Saudi and Jordanian forces.  Victory will come but the US planners are considering the outcome of current actions.

They warned ISIS to make them move forces forward to defend the advance which will make them easier to kill by exposing them on more fronts and then  forcing Iraqi forces to waste their strength against harder defenses in depth. 

The victory will come, but they can achieve a secondary goal of blunting ALL the antagonists. Sounds like karma to me for all those American casualties....

Economic War: Western-Style

Russia's Central Bank Steps In to Steady Ruble


Putin may be a pre-Glasnost Russian oligarch, but he was raised in the world of intrigue and not the world of finance.

Perhaps he miscalculated while he was busy preparing military plans to defend his temporal sphere of influence?  His economy's collapse was entirely predictable.  What he did not learn in KGB spy school is that capitalist  economies are interrelated. Interdependent.  And dominatable by the biggest bully on the block.

So once you plugged into world finances you are subject to risk of economic warfare.  And the US can swamp anyone, even allies, when and if it chooses.  Just ask Canada about all the trade sanctions against the US for unfair / protectionist practices they simply ignore - wood, salmon, - and keep going.   


http://gwynnedyer.com/2014/oil-blind-sided-by-technology/

Sanctions were not the biggest weapons in the American arsenal.  Oil independence means their demand can be used as a weapon against corrupt governments as Gwynne Dyer explains above.  They can turn production up and drop the ruble to nothing.

And it gets worse if you are Russia.  What people forget is that the US has a strategic ban on oil exports.  They are artificially lowering supply, not just lowering their purchase of oil, due to the 40 year embargo on oil export thanks to OPEC and the 1978 crisis.  http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-05/bhp-billiton-starts-exporting-u-dot-s-dot-oil

All that needs to happen to make the Russian economy - in these worsening times - drop to zero is to allow US companies to dump oil on the market. 

So Putin can celebrate liberating a few hectares of land.  Maybe that will comfort the Russian people unemployed in bread lines?